金融市場(chǎng)的緊張情緒、經(jīng)濟(jì)的不確定性、對(duì)紙幣價(jià)值可能會(huì)重挫的擔(dān)心,都使得投資者把目光轉(zhuǎn)向了金幣、金條和以黃金為擔(dān)保的交易所交易基金(ETF)。多家分析機(jī)構(gòu)因而預(yù)計(jì),2011年金價(jià)將延續(xù)可觀升勢(shì),其他貴金屬可能會(huì)給予投資者更高回報(bào)。 T hepositive runongoldis expectedtocontinuebecauseof thefinancial concerns about the state of theglobal econom y,PriceWaterhouseC ooperssaid in asurveypublish ed Monday .P WC interview edexecutivesat 44com paniesand found that nearly 75 percent of all thegoldm iningcom panie***pect gold prices to continue risinguntil the fourthquarter of 2011. G oldcom panies predict goldw ill peak between $U S1400anounce and $U S3000/oz w ith40per cent believingthe price w ill peakaround $U S1500 when the surveyw as conductedinN ovem ber 2010,PW C said. 普華永道公布的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示,鑒于金融市場(chǎng)對(duì)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況存在擔(dān)憂,金價(jià)的可觀升勢(shì)料將延續(xù)。普華永道對(duì)44家金礦企業(yè)的管理人士進(jìn)行調(diào)查后發(fā)現(xiàn),有近75%的受訪對(duì)象預(yù)計(jì)金價(jià)的上漲趨勢(shì)將持續(xù)至2011年第四季度。于今年11月份展開(kāi)該項(xiàng)調(diào)查的普華永道稱(chēng),接受調(diào)查的金礦企業(yè)預(yù)計(jì),金價(jià)將在每盎司1400至3000美元之間達(dá)到最高水平,其中40%的受訪對(duì)象認(rèn)為金價(jià)將在每盎司1500美元附近達(dá)到最高水平。 Last year"s w inner inprice term s,pal-ladium,is set toextendits rallystill furtherin2011as dem andfrom em ergingm arketslikeC hina continues togrow,but platinum,w hichhas laggedits sister m etal"s gains,isalsointhespotlight. Palladium is ontrackforaw hopping82% pricerisethisyear,outstrippingplatinum"s 16% rise andgold"s25% clim b. O nlysilver,up72% sofar thisyear,hascom eclosetom atchingitsper-form ance. 因中國(guó)等新興市場(chǎng)的需求持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),在過(guò)去一年成為價(jià)格漲幅最大贏家的鈀金2011年有望延續(xù)其升勢(shì)。不過(guò),漲幅落后的鉑金也成為市場(chǎng)熱點(diǎn)。鈀金今年有望達(dá)到82%的漲幅,遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)鉑金16%和黃金25%的預(yù)估升幅,堪與其比肩的唯有今年以來(lái)價(jià)格猛漲72%的白銀。 Whilethepriceof gold isnow w ellabovethenom inal record ittouched in1980,silverrem ainsbelow the $50 anounce it hit that year. D ealers saidinvestorsw ere buying silver inexpectationthat the so-called“poorm an"sgold”could soarinprice.A lthoughprices arelargelydrivenbyinvestor sentim ent,silver unlikegoldis alsobeinghelpedbybuoyant industrial dem and. 盡管現(xiàn)在的金價(jià)遠(yuǎn)高于1980年觸及的名義紀(jì)錄水平,但白銀價(jià)格仍低于當(dāng)年觸及的每盎司50美元。經(jīng)銷(xiāo)商表示,投資者購(gòu)買(mǎi)白銀,是期待著這種所謂“窮人的黃金”會(huì)出現(xiàn)價(jià)格飆升。雖然價(jià)格主要受到投資者人氣的推動(dòng),但與黃金不同的是,活躍的工業(yè)需求也提振了銀價(jià)。 But there is a note of cautiononsilver,another star perform er this year. T hem etalhas benefitedbothfrom its role as a cheaper proxy for goldandas anindustrial m etal inits ow nright,but it m aybe vulnerable toacorrection . Investm ent in silverhasbeenreflectedinsubstantial gainsinexchange-tradedfundholdings this year—thelargestsilver-backedET F,N ew Y ork"s iShares Sil-ver T rust,has seeninflow s of nearly1,400tonnes sofar this year,a15% riseintotalholdings.“Silver is theonlyprecious m etalw herethereisasteadyincreaseinm inesupply,particularlyfrom LatinA m erica,”saidH SBC analyst Jam es Steel. 不過(guò),對(duì)今年另一個(gè)表現(xiàn)搶眼的貴金屬白銀應(yīng)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。作為相對(duì)便宜的黃金替代物及工業(yè)金屬,白銀一直因此受惠,但其可能很容易就會(huì)得到修正。上市交易基金所持白銀倉(cāng)位今年大量增加已經(jīng)反映出白銀的投資狀況。全球最大白銀上市交易基金紐約的iSharesSilver T rust今年以來(lái)的白銀持倉(cāng)量已增加近1400噸,總倉(cāng)位增長(zhǎng)15%。匯豐分析師詹姆士·斯蒂爾稱(chēng)“白銀是唯一一個(gè)礦產(chǎn)供應(yīng)穩(wěn)步增加的貴金屬,其中拉丁美洲的供應(yīng)增加情況尤其突出!
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